OK. I’ll just go ahead and admit it. My nerves are shot. In fact, they’ve been too shot to blog much at all today. I don’t know whether to be excited, nervous or what. All I know is that, after being in D.C. for 2000 and 2004, I’m not given to unrestrained optimism. I look at the poll numbers, I look at the electoral maps, and I see the picture they paint, But it’s going to be somewhere between 10:00 p.m. and 2:00 a.m. before I feel comfortable enough to exhale tomorrow night.
I just don’t think I can call it, yet. But the electoral maps are encouraging. There are three I’ve been obsessing over.
In our final Fix electoral map, we put Barack Obama at 319 electoral votes and John McCain as 219 electoral votes — a significant margin of victory for the senator from Illinois.
Our final map splits the two states that decided the last two presidential elections — Florida and Ohio — between Obama and McCain.
In the final analysis we put Florida in Obama’s column — based on the massive voter registration and turnout operation built by the Democrat in the state — and gave Ohio to McCain due to a belief that Obama’s ability to grow the electorate in a state so closely targeted in 2004 is far more limited than in other places.
The truth is that the outcome in both states is almost unknowable as both sides acknowledge how close the contest is. The same goes for Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Nevada — all states President Bush carried with varying levels of ease in 2004.
Make no mistake, however. The overall electoral picture clearly favors Obama.
Right-leaning Real Clear Politics calls it for Obama, too, but by a narrower margin.
Finally the self-proclaimed non-partisan site Electoral-Vote.Com gives Obama an electoral landslide.
And, via The Fix’s interactive map, here’s my first attempt at calling it.
2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President – Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.
I’m wildly optimistic here, putting Florida and Virginia in Obama’s column. Maybe that’s because I have been told that “If Obama wins Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia, it’s over and we can all go safely to bed.” Well, maybe, but I don’t think I’ll be doing to bed early tomorrow no matter what.
Best case scenario, Obama gets in he neighborhood of 330 electoral votes; enough to make him the clear winner on electoral votes. I can’t think how the popular vote will go, but my guess is that Obama will win with a significant margin there to.
And on Wednesday morning we’ll wake to a changed country and a changed world, even if it still looks the same.
More on that later.
That’s my call. What’s yours?